February 27, 2024
Day 879 of the Adventure
Today I'm compiling the recent series of postings I did concerning "Preparedness". If it sounds familiar, it's from February 21-24.
Day 1:
For years, I've largely ignored the frantic messages about impending societal catastrophe. I've always felt that as dysfunctional as we are as a government or society, there were always enough checks and balances to keep us between the ditches.......mostly. When building our businesses, I would receive regular queries about "What if" scenarios regarding economic collapse, civil unrest, crime in general or even entire melt-downs of civilization. My response was always, "If any of that happened, we would all have a lot more to worry about than just our business. So, why not just bet on the pendulum not swinging that far in either direction." That has always worked pretty well for us.
2020 began changing my perspective on that as a couple of our business were mandated by government to shut down. By mid 2021, I was ready to adjust my position some and have slowly inched my way in the direction of becoming more prepared and more self-sufficient. I still hold to the belief that we can avoid total calamity, but my faith in that stand is under attack on many fronts. On a scale of one through ten. One being completely oblivious to any danger of the possibility of any economic, social or criminal meltdown. Ten being complete apocalypse, I'm checking in at around a six.
Being a person of faith. I am not disturbed about any level of hardship to come. That being said, I do believe there are plenty of Biblical examples and principles regarding being "ready" or "prepared" for the unknown. One principle in particular is that of the story of Joseph being betrayed by his brothers, ending up in slavery, then promoted to leadership by his slave masters and finally understanding that God had given him a vision of a bleak future of famine. Further instructed to stockpile food for the onset of the famine, he did precisely that. In the midst of the famine, he was not only able to feed the entire nation of Egypt (his former captors) but also feed the nation of Israel including his own family, who had betrayed him and had thrown him into a pit to die.
What is the line between "Prepping" and "Being Prepared?" I'm planning to explore this in upcoming days. All while continuing to prep our own property for garden space, along with fuel, energy and water security. If these thoughts have concerned you, you are invited to follow this journey of discovery we are going through.
Day 2:
I've recently been giving a lot of thought to the subject of prepping and being prepared. By definition, the two are probably no different from one another. I believe by the intent of those involved, there is a difference. When seeing the term "prepping" I generally see it used in the area of "prepping for extreme and catastrophic events". It implies that expecting the worst and preparing for the worst go hand in hand. The list of preparations is long and intense. No scenario should be neglected in this endeavor. On the other hand, the term "being prepared" generally implies a general preparedness for the unexpected. These events would typically be natural calamities or even man made, but more likely in the realm of "reasonably expected" events or occurrences. Obviously, it's a definition open to each individual's interpretation and very subjective at that. Additionally, no one can determine for another just exactly what they believe the probability would be for any possibility that would require a status of preparedness. To one, global apocalypse is immanent and anyone not seeing that is naive and ignorant of current circumstances. To others, prepping for a 3 day power outage is enough and anyone believing more than that is crazy. So, are we naive and ignorant or totally crazy. That question serves no purpose other than to illustrate the levels of preparedness we believe we should be addressing in our lives.
With all that said, I believe I've been operating under the 80/20 rule when it comes to preparedness. The 80/20 rule is a familiar saying that asserts that "80% of outcomes (or outputs) result from 20% of all causes (or inputs) for any given event." In simple language, 80% of effective results come from focusing on the 20% of most productive activities (in rough terms). Another way of looking at it is to focus your greater energy and effort on the things that will most likely help you survive the greatest number of scenarios. As an example, spending half of your effort, energy and resources building a bunker equipped to survive a nuclear blast within a 5 mile radius of ground zero, would not be employing an 80/20 approach. It would be using 50% of everything you got to prepare for perhaps a one tenth of a percentage of probability. Unless, of course, you believe a nuclear blast within a five mile radius of you is not only likely but completely immanent.
The level of preparedness is linked directly to your personal ideas of what is most likely to impact you. As you think about this, I plan to expand on the 80/20 rule more tomorrow and beyond. Hopefully, helping myself and others to define how the 80/20 preparedness paradigm might help focus each of our energies on the most practical efforts we can have in our preparedness activities.
Day 3:
Continuing on with the subject of "prepping" and "being prepared". The idea behind all of this is to try to determine what is prudent and adequate in becoming more prepared for challenges we may face. As mentioned in the previous postings, it's an individual perspective on what those challenges may be.
Personally, I've never adhered to an apocalyptic view of life in the future. It makes for great movies, but I could never bring myself to that conclusion as a potential reality. Up until a few years ago, I was content trying to prepare for economic hardship and natural disasters. Our longest natural disaster was a five-day power outage in the winter due to an ice storm. Economics has always been on my radar and I'm not sure I've ever had that scenario very far from my focus. Now, after experiencing a myriad of unexpected events along with seemingly obvious events hovering on our horizon, my personal attitude on what to prepare for has changed. Let me list just a few.
1. The 2021 Texas power plant failure during extreme cold causing power outages and plant shut-downs causing homes to freeze and waterlines to burst all across the state. Cause: A combination of cold weather, natural gas distribution plant equipment failure and aging power grid.
2. Economic recession 2023 and beyond that we are currently experiencing causing prices of nearly everything to be anywhere from 20% to 100% (and more) higher than we had just a few years ago. Cause: You name it.
3. Covid pandemic 2020 causing global reactions causing health, economic and social impacts including my personal favorite, mandated business closures. Cause: Opinions vary (which is reason enough to want to be prepared for the whole thing to happen again)
4. Open borders Current causing an increase of potential security threats literally anywhere. Cause: Pick your reason.
My point is that much of this has natural origins, including weather related events. Coupled with aging and inadequacies of the power grid along with increasing demand, the weather can simply be a triggering effect to greater issues. In many of the scenarios one would prepare for, political policy and decisions pave the way towards impending problems. What does all of this mean for our decisions to prepare the best we can for these events as the unfold or are even unfolding right now? Some, like weather and power outages, can be considered mostly short term and have somewhat simple solutions. Power grid infrastructure issues could take the simple power outage events and turn them into longer term events and subsequently, more complex solutions. When preparing for one, it is probably a good idea to take them both into consideration. Applying the 80/20 rule, addressing a preparedness plan for power outages would certainly fit into the realm of focusing on part of the 20% of inputs that have an 80% effect on the preparation results. I believe that food production and preservation also fits that model. As does a secure fresh water plan. By focusing effort and energy on these areas alone, most of the likely scenarios we will most often encounter can be mitigated. Obviously, that is my perspective coming from a midwestern, rural, mostly safe from crime point of view. If I were near a large urban area or border town, my perspective may indeed include added security and personal defense measures beyond what I deem necessary and adequate now.
Being adequately prepared for the 80% of likely scenarios I believe that I face is pretty straight forward. We have access to power grid but use alternate forms of power. Our primary power input is generated by solar with batteries for storage. A secondary emergency power source is a generator and back up to that is a second generator. Our primary heat source is wood with currently a five-year supply cut and stored. Fresh water is a municipal water source with a filtration system. Part of our plan is to install a well at some point and add the filtration system to that. By the way, our water filtration system is not a "prepper" sort of thing. We got it originally to remove chlorine and other contaminants from our drinking water. In the researching and purchasing of it, we bought a product that could literally filter out any potential contamination possible. So there's that. Food production and preservation is something we are currently focused on and we will be growing into that over the next several years I'm sure. I'm not going to elaborate on home security........ but it's there.
Does all this make me a doomsday prepper. I suppose to some it does. To me it's nothing more than becoming self-sufficient in the areas of energy, water, food and security. From that point of view, it doesn't sound all that extreme.
Day 4:
For several day's I've been thinking through the idea of what it means to be prepared. In the context of "prepping for extreme events" of any variety, prepping can take on an ominous and apocalyptic tone. In yesterday's post, I concluded with what we consider to be the 80 percent of preparedness that consumes the minimal amount of focus. At least from a point of view of "areas of focus". Those were insuring a stable supply of food, water, energy and security. In essence, it's nothing more than becoming self-sufficient in those areas.
As I've been identifying the different preparedness scenarios I personally see on the horizon, I've pretty much determined, to myself anyway, that covering these four areas of concern will help me guard against roughly 80 percent of what I should be prepared for. Building a plan on how to go from Point A to Point B regarding the creation of a prepared lifestyle is not a complicated one necessarily.
If using the four areas of food, energy, water and security, simply begin looking at each one from a likely disruption scenario. Disruption can include availability as well as cost impact. Yes, the cost of things can be as disruptive as the availability. After all, if you can only afford a specific amount of groceries in your cart, the rest of it has become unavailable. Viewing the food, energy, water and security categories, as areas to improve your self-sufficiency or preparedness in, take them as individual components of your over-all preparation plans.
Food - Perhaps the easiest solution is to plan for a garden and food preservation plan. Start small if need be and grow it year after year. If you reside in an area where small livestock is allowed, look into that with poultry or rabbits. One method we used over the years is buying items in bulk at reduced costs. Eventually, the self-sufficiency and preparedness begins to take place. It's something you figure out along the way as you do it.
Energy - Most energy independent solutions are not more economical than the grid. With that said, measures to improve the "economics" of life help get things started. Removing energy wasting issues is an easy place to start and there are hundreds of small ways that can be accomplished. Second to that could be a back-up plan for electrical power and/or emergency heat. Obviously, depending on where you live and whether you are renting a home vs owning one, your options may be limited. To me, a back up generator large enough to run the bulk of your household would be the quick solution. There are safety issues with using one of which you would want to educate yourself on before hand. We had also thought far enough in advance of our "5 days without power and heat" experience to have installed an LP heat back-up system that kept our house at least moderately warm during the outage. Some of these lower cost measures can provide for temporary disruptions and emergencies. Going beyond that to energy independence will be a bigger and costlier decision. One that may never fully pay for itself but may be the energy firewall you desire and choose to make a commitment to.
Water - Water is something that essentially comes down to two issues. Is it available and is it potable. (drinkable) Insuring for drinking and cooking water can be addressed with a filtration system. I won't even get into the comparisons of that. However, a filtration system that relies upon electricity to operate is going to also need a stable source of power or will not do you any good. A gravity flow or low pressure flow system or product would likely be better as an emergency or long term system. Also an adequate supply of the appropriate filters is advised. Losing water supply altogether would be a bigger issue. Probably not a "more likely" event, but definitely a more concerning one. It that case, bulk water storage may be an answer as long as it also included an appropriate filtration system for water that has been stored long enough to have developed any micro organism issues. Others would include rainwater recovery, wells, streams, springs and the like. Again, filtration before use is essential.
Security - I hate getting too deeply int security because that subject stretches into self defense and potential weapons ownership and use. My advice is to make the appropriate and responsible plans and actions to bring yourself to a responsible level of safety and security.
Self-sufficiency and preparedness may indeed be one and the same at least to a point. I believe preparedness begins with self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency begins with a decision. The extent of it's limits are very individual. Each of us must measure what we are comfortable with whether that means zero preparedness, apocalyptic preparedness or somewhere in between.
Adventure Quote: “there's no harm in hoping for the best as long as you're prepared for the worst.” ― Stephen King
Base Camp Coffee of the Day: Southern Pecan (just like it sounds)
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